2024 Municipal Elections: Local and National Impacts in a Scenario of Polarization and Institutional Crises
Pedro Kelson is coordinator of the WBO Democracy Program. This article was written for issue 137 of the WBO weekly newsletter, dated October 4, 2024. To subscribe to the newsletter, enter your email in the field below.
Elections in Brazil take place every two years, alternating between municipal and general elections. In the municipal elections, held every four years, mayors and city councilors are elected with a focus on local city administration. In all, 156 million voters will go to the polls in the country's 5,568 municipalities. The results of these elections have a direct impact on the general elections and on the reconfiguration of the national political scenario. They are often seen as a barometer of the popularity of parties and national leaders. Elected mayors and city councilors play important roles in coordinating candidacies for the general elections, influencing party alliances and strategies. In addition, control of city halls in large cities can strengthen or weaken political projects with national ambitions, also serving as a breeding ground for new leaders.
The 2024 election is taking place at a moment of intense political polarization, represented mainly by former President Jair Bolsonaro and current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Another important center of power is the “Centrão,” (Big Center), a traditional and pragmatic bloc in Brazilian politics with a broad presence in all levels of government with strong control of the federal budget. This group, with a self-serving and conservative profile, tends to ally itself with the political forces that have the greatest chance of winning in each municipality. In small and medium-sized municipalities, these alliances of convenience are even more common, and the electoral debate tends to focus more on local issues. In the large capitals, the polarization between Bolsonaro supporters and Lula supporters is more pronounced, mirroring the national dispute.
The São Paulo election is seen as a proxy for the 2026 elections, due to the national implications of the dispute. President Lula actively supports the candidacy of Guilherme Boulos (Party Socialism and Freedom, PSOL), while the current mayor, Ricardo Nunes (Brazilian Democratic Movement, MDB), and businessman Pablo Marçal (Brazilian Labor Renewal Party, PRTB) are competing for the explicit support of Bolsonaro and his supporters. The three candidates are technically tied in the polls.
Marçal stands out as the newcomer to the election, running for the small PRTB. Despite his limited party structure, he has an engaged network of young volunteers and a strong presence on social media, surpassing all other politicians in the country except Lula and Bolsonaro. Inspired by figures from the international far right, Marçal adopts the conservative agenda of Bolsonaro, the aggressiveness of Argentine President Javier Milei, the erratic rhetoric of Donald Trump, the style of Salvadoran President Najib Bukele and the media strategies of Andrew Tate. His candidacy, however, is embroiled in a series of lawsuits for electoral crimes, abuse of economic power and misuse of the media, creating a challenge for the Judiciary. If his candidacy is contested or his mandate is revoked, this could reinforce his anti-system rhetoric, elevating him to the national stage and further weakening trust in electoral institutions.
Debate between candidates in São Paulo. Photo: Renato Pizzutto/Band
Marçal's ability to use social media reinforces the importance of the debate on regulating this type of tool. With the digitalization of campaigns and unprecedented access to artificial intelligence and synthetic content production tools, public debate has become even more vulnerable to mass disinformation. Over the past two years, the Brazilian Congress has tried, unsuccessfully, to pass a law to regulate big tech. In the absence of specific legislation, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) assumed this responsibility and, after consultations and public hearings, drafted a set of resolutions that regulate the use of artificial intelligence, prohibit deepfakes, create a repository of court decisions on content removal, and define transparency rules on paid boosting of publications, in addition to increasing the responsibility of platforms for the circulation of information that is known to be false. Although these measures have proven effective so far, they are generating new tensions between politicians, civil society, and the electoral justice system.
Another important element to consider in the 2024 electoral context is the prospect of improving political representation. The Congress is approving, for the fifth time, an amnesty package for parties that did not meet the quotas to fund women and Black candidates. Thus, it is likely that in 2024, electoral and party resources, which total R$4.9 billion, will continue not to be allocated to candidates from politically minority groups, perpetuating the history of minimal diversity in national politics. In addition, the issue of climate change and urban adaptations to it remain off the electoral agenda in most municipalities, despite the serious disasters that occurred last year, such as the floods that devastated dozens of cities in Rio Grande do Sul, the landslides that buried entire communities on the coast of São Paulo, and the fires that destroyed important areas of the Cerrado, Pantanal, and Amazon.
These are some of the general elements that are relevant to consider when understanding the political moment that Brazil is going through in the context of the municipal elections. This situation poses enormous challenges to organized civil society and progressive forces as a whole, as it indicates the consolidation of a conservative, anti-democratic and anti-environmental project in the country that has a broad base and popular support.
