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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Considerations on Trump’s victory in 2024

Although slavery was abolished in the US in 1865, presidential elections continue to be decided by indirect vote: 270 votes are needed in the Electoral College to elect a president. In 2016, Trump garnered 306 votes to Clinton's 232. When he ran for re-election in 2020, Trump got 232 votes to Biden's 206. Trump did not accept his defeat and incited a mob to invade the Capitol on January 6, 2021, the day Congress confirmed Biden's victory. To this day, Trump and his co-religionists maintain their “victory.” In 2024, there was no need for that. Trump won a landslide victory in the Electoral College: 312 to 226. He also received 50.5% of the popular vote, or almost 4 million votes ahead of Kamal Harris. Part of his success is due to the fact that he won in all the “swing states” or “battlefield states,” so called because their voters are not committed to either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Therefore, depending on the election, they can swing in either direction, thus establishing a battleground for the parties. These are Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, on the East Coast; in the Midwest, Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan and Iowa; Nevada and Colorado in the West complete the picture.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Takeaways from COP16 on Efforts to Combat Environmental Crimes

Last week, representatives from countries around the world gathered at the COP16 Biodiversity Conference in Cali, Colombia to discuss national commitments to protect biodiversity at a time when up to 1 million species are at risk of extinction. Of course, environmental crime falls squarely within the agenda of COP16. We know that illegal logging, mining, and trafficking of wild flora and fauna constitute major threats to biodiversity. This occurs through direct threats, such as trafficking of endangered species that removes them from their habitats and puts their immediate survival at risk. It also occurs through indirect threats, such as mercury use in illegal mining, which poisons living organisms downstream, including dolphins and jaguars.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

What the 2024 Local Elections Signal for the Future of Politics in Brazil

If we were to paint the map of Brazil with the results of the 2024 municipal elections with the same logic that the USA does, red for the Republicans (right wing) and blue for Democrats (left wing), that map would be covered in red. Different from the dual party system present in the United States, Brazil currently has 29 registered parties across the political spectrum, and it is the parties from the center to the right that were dominant and won the majority of the mayors in Brazil's 5,569 municipalities. However, if that red meant blood, then that map would have many dots on it. In the first round of the elections, between August 16th and October 6th, 373 occurrences of violence against candidates or their staff were registered with 100 murder attempts and 10 assassinations, an increase of 130% since the 2020 elections, according to a study by Terra de Direitos and Justiça Global. Now if the color green represented money, that map would be covered with the billions of dollars from parliamentary amendments sent by congressmen to their base and that heavily influenced electoral outcomes.  Characterized by less polarization than in 2022, these elections were still marked by violence, the results of the parliamentary amendments and the consolidation of a block of parties that is increasingly more powerful.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Leading Change and Strengthening Democracy

The underrepresentation of Black women in positions of power in Brazil is a historic challenge that has been addressed with increasing mobilization and organization. The Mulheres Negras Decidem (Black Women Decide, MND) movement emerged in 2018 with a firm belief in the capabilities of current generations to reverse this scenario, transforming institutional politics ethically and aesthetically. With a network that exteneds throughout the country, the MND carries out campaigns, training sessions, and data-centered research to increase the political participation of these women, ensuring that they have the power to influence the decisions that affect their lives.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Why the Far Right is Gaining Popular Support and Electoral Expression in Brazil

The results of the first round of the 2024 Brazilian municipal elections, held on October 6, point to a scenario that has been predicted and feared since anti-democratic political forces have intensified their influence in the country over the last decade. The election revealed significant political and electoral traction by the far right and its orbiting camp and was once again the scene of methods characteristic of this side of the political spectrum: systematic disinformation campaigns, political violence, and hostility towards the Brazilian voting system.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Cerrado: The Invisible Biome, Heart of the Waters and Guardian of Life

The Cerrado emerged 80 million years ago, making it one of the oldest biomes on the planet. In just fifty years, predatory human action has destroyed 50% of the native vegetation of this biome, which is the second largest biodiversity reserve in Brazil and the most biodiverse savannah on the planet – a biome that has about 5% of all species in the world.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

2024 Municipal Elections: Local and National Impacts in a Scenario of Polarization and Institutional Crises

Elections in Brazil take place every two years, alternating between municipal and general elections. In the municipal elections, held every four years, mayors and city councilors are elected with a focus on local city administration. In all, 156 million voters will go to the polls in the country's 5,568 municipalities. The results of these elections have a direct impact on the general elections and on the reconfiguration of the national political scenario. They are often seen as a barometer of the popularity of parties and national leaders. Elected mayors and city councilors play important roles in coordinating candidacies for the general elections, influencing party alliances and strategies. In addition, control of city halls in large cities can strengthen or weaken political projects with national ambitions, also serving as a breeding ground for new leaders.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Tackling the Apathy Epidemic to Solve the Climate Crisis

The world is facing one of the greatest threats of modern times: an apathy epidemic. Temperature records are breaking left, right and centre. Homes are being destroyed from California to Carriacou. Our nature is collapsing faster than we predicted. This devastation is no longer restricted to lands far away: it’s on each of our doorsteps. Brazil itself -- in the last few months alone -- has suffered the worst drought on record and ongoing flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. As this existential threat hurtles towards us at breakneck speed, what do most of us do? We sit back and silently scroll. And scroll. And scroll.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

The Danger of the Far Right and the Need to Confront It

On September 24, the Washington Brazil Office (WBO) and Georgetown University will hold an event to discuss the current expressions of the far right and the challenges that this sector poses. The debate will feature the participation of two eminent Brazilian colleagues who are dedicated to researching the topic in Brazil – Flávia Pellegrino, from Pacto Pela Democracia, and Guilherme Casarões, professor of International Relations at the Fundação Getúlio Vargas/São Paulo – in addition to Professor Elcior Santana from Georgetown and Democratic Congresswoman Kamlager-Dove. This will undoubtedly be a great opportunity for us to reflect on the moment we are going through. We would like to take this opportunity to present some important topics that should mark this debate, which everyone is invited to follow, either in person or via the online broadcast on the WBO YouTube channel.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

79th UN General Assembly: A New Opportunity for Progress on the Global Agenda

The 79th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) will be held from September 10 to 30. It is one of the most important events on the global diplomatic calendar. It brings together leaders and diplomatic delegations from 193 countries in what can be compared, in an analogy with the world of sports, to the Olympics or the Soccer World Cup, given the nature of the event as a major international stage since its first session on January 10, 1946 in London.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Cerrado or devastation

September 11 is Cerrado (or Savannah) Day. Still largely unknown to the public, the biome is the second largest in the country, with an area of ​​2,036,448 km², about 23 percent of the national territory, reaching 36 percent, if the transition zones with other biomes are included. Its continuous area covers the states of Goiás, Tocantins, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Bahia, Maranhão, Piauí, Rondônia, Paraná, São Paulo and the Federal District, with isolated patches in Amapá, Roraima and Amazonas. Composed of fields, trails, and forests, it is considered the most biodiverse savannah in the world, with approximately 5 percent of the species on the planet and more than 30 percent of the species in the country. It hosts half of all known birds, more than two-thirds of all mammals, at least 210 species of amphibians, 1,200 species of fish, 300 species of reptiles and 13,140 species of plants. Lack of knowledge about the biome is one of the problems in addressing the systematic devastation of the Cerrado.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Fighting Climate Change Requires a Different Mindset

The climate disasters unfolding around the world – including unprecedented floods in Brazil, Africa, and China, heat waves in Asia and the Middle East, and persistent droughts in Europe and Latin America – show that the planet is at a critical juncture. Fortunately, we can still seize the opportunity to redefine our paradigms of economic and social development. Alongside preserving and restoring our forests, we must end our dependence on fossil fuels and embrace renewables.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Indigenous Rights Must be Guaranteed and Not Negotiated

The Temporal Framework thesis regarding the demarcation of Indigenous territories was declared unconstitutional by the Brazilian Supreme Court in September 2023, but threats against the fundamental rights of Indigenous peoples continue. On the same day that the anti-Indigenous thesis was overturned in the Supreme Court, Senator Hiran Gonçalves (Progressive Party) presented a proposed amendment to the constitution (PEC) 48/2023 in the Senate. The proposal must be discussed in the Committee on Constitution, Justice and Citizenship by October 30.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

The Brazilian Semi-Arid Region as a Global Example of Climate Adaptation

Information from the Convention of the Parties to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) warns that 70 percent of people in the world who suffer from various types of malnutrition live in dry areas, whether arid, semi-arid, or sub-humid. This classification of drylands by the United Nations considers the amount of rainfall (pluviometry) and evapotranspiration, which results in a balance that tends to be low or negative in these areas. Drylands are spread throughout the world and cover more than 41 percent of the planet's land. They are present on all continents, with large areas of land, such as the Sonoran Desert in the United States, the Sahel region in Africa, and much of Australia.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Violence as an element of presidential disputes in Brazil and the United States

The attack on Donald Trump, which took place on July 13 in the city of Butler, in the state of Pennsylvania, shocked the entire world, but it had an even more alarming meaning for Brazilians. In disbelief, viewers watching the news live in Brazil could not help but think of the many parallels between what was happening at that moment with the Republican Party candidate for the US presidency and what had taken place on September 6, 2018, when Jair Bolsonaro was stabbed in the stomach during a presidential campaign event in the city of Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Latin American and Caribbean Black Women's Day: Who are We Talking About?

In 1992, Black Latin American and Caribbean women gathered in the city of Santo Domingo, in the Dominican Republic at the First Meeting of Black Latin American and Caribbean Women to give visibility to racism, violence, and sexism that do not respect geographical limits and plague brutally the lives of Black women around the world. This meeting made history and, already in 1992, the United Nations recognized July 25th as the International Day of Latin American and Caribbean Black Women. The tribute at that time was paid to quilombola Tereza de Benguela, who led Quilombo do Quariterê, in the current state of Mato Grosso, with mastery, a sense of justice and strategy, shortly after the death of her husband. Still feeling the absence of love, she did not allow pain to overcome her, and her inclusive leadership is recognized throughout history.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Evangelicals and Elections in a Less Catholic Country

Religious diversification in Brazil has been occurring accompanied by continued evangelical growth. In the last forty years the percentage of evangelicals has increased fivefold and currently reaches 31 percent of the population over 16 years of age. At the same time, the number of Catholics has dropped significantly, and the number of "no religion" and other religions has also been growing. Adherence to the evangelical universe has grown in all social strata but is predominant at the base of the social pyramid in urban and peripheral areas. We are talking about a population that is mostly low-income, Black and female. An evangelical belt has been forming in the outskirts of Brazilian cities over the last forty years. And in this growing religious transition in Brazil, evangelicals not only stand out because of their numerical presence, but also for their religious activism. Surveys from Pew Research indicate that 60 percent of evangelicals attend church and pray daily, compared to just 23 percent of Catholics. Evangelicals also share their faith more outside of their church.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

Who is Interested in Keeping Research into Online Crimes Silent?

NetLab UFRJ (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro) is a national reference in the study of disinformation that circulates on the internet and social networks. Having carried out research on the state of digital information in Brazil for thirteen years, the Laboratory seeks to actively participate in the public debate, whether in academic fora, civil society initiatives, official activities, or with its frequent participation in Brazilian and international news.

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Joao Paulo Charleaux Joao Paulo Charleaux

How Land Speculation Drives Environmental and Human Rights Violations in Brazil’s Cerrado

With global temperatures breaking records year after year and wildfires, floods and extreme weather events ravaging countries across the world, there is little question that the climate emergency is the greatest threat facing the world today. The burning of fossil fuels is the leading cause of climate emissions, rightly placing the question of a global energy transition at center stage of environmental decision-making. But it is also critical to act on the second leading cause of climate change – deforestation.

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