Brazil: Elections and Democracy Threatened - 06/10/22

Armando Boito Jr.

In Brazil, this year's election and democracy itself are seriously threatened. The threat comes from the President of the Republic and the leadership of the Armed Forces. A response by democratic forces to such a threat is of utmost urgency. Moreover, the Brazilian situation has a negative impact on other South American countries.

As has been the case since the ratification of the 1988 Constitution, which ended the military dictatorship, the October 2022 elections will choose deputies (congressional representatives), senators, state governors and the president of the Republic. Since the mid-1990s, this process has been computerized – the process of casting ballots and tabulating the results is done electronically. A few hours after polls close on election day, the winner can be announced. For decades, elections have been conducted in this way, and, until now, no political party or relevant political or social actors have questioned their fairness. The Brazilian judiciary even has a special branch to oversee the electoral process, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE). It has a large and qualified team of IT technicians, is very well equipped with modern computers, has a widespread presence throughout the country, and responds vigorously to possible threats to the fairness of the elections.

The current threat only exists because President Jair Bolsonaro, a politician who prides himself on holding authoritarian and prejudiced positions, has repeatedly stated that he will not accept electoral defeat because the Brazilian voting process will likely, according to him, be manipulated by the TSE. More than once he has stated that he can prove such an accusation, but, so far, he has not presented any evidence. Instead, he keeps repeating the threats. His attitude is very similar to that of Donald Trump after he lost the 2016 US election to Joe Biden. The point is to find the strangest and most bizarre excuses to disrupt the electoral process, encourage extreme right-wing groups to intimidate voters, and, if defeated, refuse to recognize the election result.

Bolsonaro's desperation stems from the fact that polls indicate that Workers’ Party candidate Lula da Silva, who is supported by a broad spectrum of democratic forces, is likely to win the elections against a person who has, since his inauguration, threatened democracy. Bolsonaro frequently organizes street demonstrations with his supporters in which he praises Brazil’s most recent dictatorship; calls for closing the Federal Supreme Court (STF); threatens workers' organizations and the press; and promotes prejudice against the movements of women, blacks, and the LGBT population. Bolsonarism is similar to fascistic movements in its reactionary authoritarianism, which frequently mobilizes its base of support.

Bolsonaro has already carried out two failed coup attempts. In March and April 2020 and in September 2021, he campaigned publicly and with massive street demonstrations for the closure of the STF. Facing pushback from the judiciary, pro-democracy parties, and the press, the president backed down. Recently, however, he has reissued his charges, now with the aim of preventing the October elections from being carried out or annulling them it if the results are not in his favor. The situation is all the more serious because his government has the support of the Brazilian armed forces, an institution responsible for two long dictatorial periods during the twentieth century.

As previously noted, the mobilization in defense of elections and Brazilian democracy is still far short of what is necessary to stop Bolsonaro. Pro-democracy parties and organizations, in addition to relying on their own forces, need the support of allies around the world. Unfortunately, at the moment, threats against democracy are not an exclusively Brazilian problem.

Armando Boito, Jr. is Full Professor in the Department of Political Science at the State University of Campinas, Brazil. He is the author of Reform and Political Crisis in Brazil: Class Conflicts in Workers' Party Governments and the Rise of Bolsonaro Neo-fascism. Boston: Brill. 2021.