Brazilian Confidence in Democracy Improves in an Election where Feelings will be Decisive - 9/2/22

Leonardo Avritzer and Lucio Rennó

The fifth edition of the survey, “The Face of Democracy,” (A cara da Democracia), which was carried out by the Instituto da Democracia (INCT/ITDC) this year, brings good news for the country: the number of Brazilians who would not accept a coup d’état increased.  For 59% of respondents, democracy is preferable to any other form of government. And, above all, there is a majority of Brazilians who do not accept that, even in a scenario of serious corruption or increased crime, a coup or military intervention is justifiable. That is, Brazilians want to solve their problems in a democratic environment with the instruments provided by democracy.

These results were analyzed in comparison with data obtained in 2018, when the first survey was carried out. That year, about seven months before the presidential elections, the INCT found a very relevant piece of data that caught the country's attention and was highlighted in several newspapers. The survey showed that Brazilians relativized their support for democracy, and the importance of this opinion can be seen today, four years after that first survey. In just a few years, the relativization of support for democracy has cost the country more violence, more intolerance, and more distrust of democratic institutions.

In this 2022 edition, the survey “The Face of Democracy” shows a more positive scenario. However, despite the important advances that the research presented in relation to support for democracy in Brazil, there are data that need to be observed very carefully, as they point in the opposite direction. Among these data, the most worrying is the one that shows an enormous growth in Brazil of the extreme right, especially in the last two years.

In 2018, the survey showed an increase in the number of Brazilians who declared themselves to be right-wing. This percentage was then 9% of the population. The data observed by the research at the time undoubtedly represented the end of the phenomenon commonly called the “ashamed right,” that is, part of Brazilians was no longer ashamed to assume an political identity associated with a rightwing agenda. The negative connotation of being linked to this political perspective was no longer a cause for discomfort or concern.

In 2022, the survey reveals something even more disturbing, namely, the increase in the number of Brazilians who declare themselves to be the extreme far-right, as shown in the table below.

This finding, obtained from the research, points towards a relative success of Bolsonarism in influencing the formation of an extreme right-wing movement in Brazil, an influence that remains despite the poor performance of the Bolsonaro government in areas such as health, education, and the environment. Therefore, regardless of the disaster with regard to the exercise of government, as indicated by several surveys, Bolsonarismo managed to achieve one of its objectives: to form an extreme right-wing base that will influence Brazilian politics for the foreseeable future.

But the research also showed that Brazilians have extremely unfavorable feelings towards President Jair Bolsonaro and express empathy towards former President Lula.

The survey “The Face of Democracy” explored what emotions the two main presidential candidates mobilize in the population and examined their main personal attributes. The data show candidate Lula predominantly evaluated positively, mainly on issues that touch on compassion and solidarity, and candidate Bolsonaro mostly associated with negative feelings.

Lula is seen as more hardworking, smarter, more competent than Bolsonaro. But when it comes to the issue of solidarity, Lula wins by rout: 65% of Brazilians attribute this characteristic to

Lula, while 34% associate it with Bolsonaro. Lula is also seen as more trustworthy than Bolsonaro: 41% to 31%. When it comes to honesty, a field in which Bolsonaro prides himself on being different, there is a technical tie: 35% think that way about him and 34% about Lula. In other words, Lula is attributed more positive personal characteristics than Bolsonaro, but when it comes to solidarity, the victory is overwhelming.

In addition to personal characteristics, the survey also asked what feelings voters express toward candidates. Lula mobilizes positive feelings such as happiness (42%) and hope (54%), higher rates than negative feelings such as frustration (34%), anguish (17%), bitterness (15%), contempt (19%), resentment (23%), fear (21%) or hatred (7%). Bolsonaro is mainly associated with negative feelings: frustration (42%), anguish (32%), bitterness (29%), contempt (34%), resentment (30%), fear (37%) and hatred (21%). For just 26% of respondents, Bolsonaro represents happiness and for 35% hope. Notice, these are also expressive positive numbers, which go back to its loyal base of supporters.

The 2022 election campaign will explore these contradictory trends. Brazilians are beginning to understand the importance of resolving their differences democratically, but a sector of the extreme right despises democracy and has become a major anti-democratic factor. However, Bolsonaro’s actions arouse the fear and contempt of Brazilians.

Leonardo Avritzer holds a PhD in Political Sociology from the New School for Social Research (1993) and did postdoctoral work at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1998-1999 and 2003. He is currently a professor at the Department of Political Science at the Federal University of Minas Gerais and coordinator of the Institute for Democracy and Democratization of Communication (INCT IDDC).

Lucio Rennó is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Brasilia. He is currently Dean of Graduate Studies and was the Director of the Political Science Institute in 2020 and 2021. Previously he was the President of the Federal District Planning Company of the Federal District government. He has co-authored Persuasive Peers: Social Communication and Voting in Latin America ​​(2020) and has published articles in several peer-reviewed journals.