How to Carry Out the Difficult Transition from Bolsonaro to Lula
Cooperation, which is a characteristic of a governmental transition in a democracy, is a challenge in times of polarization.
With the 2022 general elections over, it's time to talk about the transition of power. Given the political heat of recent weeks, everything indicates that we will be facing a difficult transition, in which governance for the coming years will depend on strategies for managing agendas and partnerships. This is especially the case given the delay of current President Jair Bolsonaro in recognizing his defeat, and demonstrations of some of his supporters, such as the blockade of some of the main national highways by truck drivers.
Cooperative transitions are marked by cordiality, transparency, and even joint work between outgoing and incoming teams. In the case of Brazil, the outgoing government follows the provisions of Law 10,609/2002, which establishes several dozen positions for the transition team of the newly elected government. Physical space is provided for this team to work. The transition team is allowed access to information systems and reports about public policies. Public officials are expected to assist the new team. In this way, one government passes the baton to the next.
Adversarial government transitions, by contrast, are marked by the absence of information and dialogue. The elected government runs the risk of working in the dark until the inauguration, only to start a painful process of taking over the administration of the state. Anecdotal cases illustrate extreme scenarios in which rulers leave the government having cleaned out their offices in which computers and files “disappear.” At the same time, public employers can be unwilling to collaborate and/or are afraid of retaliation. In extreme cases, the destruction of public property can take place. But there are ways to mitigate the harm of an adversarial transition.
First, it is important to remember that the campaign team is not the government transition team. The first wins the elections; the second prepares the groundwork for the future government. Although there can and should be overlap between members of these teams, they should not be confused, as they have different purposes. The transition team is an embryo of the future core leadership of the new government. It will need to coordinate legislation with politicians and will need to establish a political agenda, coordinate information on public policies, and manage communications with the public. On the eve of the inauguration, this team also starts the strategic management and monitoring of government programs. In an adversarial transition, the elected official and his or her team especially need to rely on other forces, such as congress, the judiciary, the bureaucracy, social movements, and the media. There must be good information in order to know when to use each card in that deck.
The relationship with the current and re-elected representatives of the legislative houses needs to be established as soon as the result is declared. It is especially necessary to articulate the measures that will be need to respond to any fiscal timebombs left by the previous government. In the current context, there should be an awareness of the means for resuming political dialogue on a different basis from its predecessor. The cost of governance is very high, the new congress tends to be uncooperative, and the states will be where strong opposition can develop. In a presidential system that relies on a coalition of political parties in congress, it’s necessary to include congressional representatives in the discussion of the government structure and its programs, invite them to public events, give them visibility, and commit them to electorally approved agendas. It is also important to define some legislative measures that will guide the first months of the new government that have already been set forth during the transition period.
It is essential to use the months of November and December to articulate proposals, identify who is who, and establish the objectives to be pursued in the first hundred days. If the elected government loses itself in emergencies, in internal disputes, and in its reactive position to weaknesses and errors, the polarization in the country could generate a political impasse. In addition to issues related to political sentiments, Brazil has institutions that can contribute to improving people's quality of life, establishing more harmonious relations with the environment, and expanding the economy.
The career bureaucracy, a stable framework of public servants, is one of the institutions that can contribute to access to information, the articulation of proposals, and the structuring of public policies. Respect and listening to others are key. The Directory, better known as the “who's who” of ministries, should be in the hands of the transition team. The areas of management of the ministries must be the object of special care, since chaos in the early stages of the new administration can make the machine unmanageable for some time, harming the precious first months of government. Identifying leaders in these groups of public servants is important to reduce resistance and risks of animosity, and still gain time in the accumulation of knowledge that will be necessary to get the machine running in the following year. Observing the learning curve is important, as isolated neophytes in public administration can get lost in bureaucratic clutter.
Social movements, representatives of civil society from the most diverse areas, need to remain mobilized. And that means engaging in active listening, making agreements, and opening spaces. It is necessary to keep the mobilization that guaranteed the election alive so that it remains visible, legitimizing the new government and thus reducing the costs of negotiation with other actors.
From the time the transition period begins, the elected government will need to prioritize its communication agenda. The media will be entirely focused on the new proposals, directions, and vision of the future. The team responsible for communication needs to be proactive, calibrating positive announcements and indications for ministries with popular appeal and with the mishaps and errors that are inevitable. It is necessary to establish a clear distinction between the present and what will be the future. A united message is essential. Dissenting speeches, can corrode the image of the elected president’s administration and with it that of their future government. Acts and images that demonstrate national truces and commitments are strategic.
All this effort is a necessary preparation for the beginning of the government. The first hundred days are crucial. It is in this period that the government says what it intends to do. A successful transition, even with mishaps due to lack of information and boycotts of all kinds, will be fundamental for this purpose. This is not the time to rest or take a vacation. We have a new elected government in Brazil. Democracy won!
Luna Bouzada Flores Viana is a specialist in public policies and government management and is a doctoral candidate in administration.
Frederico de Morais Andrade Coutinho is a specialist in public policies and government management, with a Master’s degree in administration. He is also the vice-president of the National Association of Specialists in Public Policy and Governance (ANESP).
This article is also available in Portuguese; it was published in Coluna Diálogos Públicos.
