The Importance of Lula’s Win
Gladys Mitchell-Walthour
Lula’s presidential win was significant and should be celebrated. However, it was not a landslide, and the close race foreshadows the contentious environment in which he will govern. It will be difficult considering that a record number of Bolsonaro-sympathetic politicians were elected to Congress. In the Senate, 27 new senators were elected, and 20 of them are Bolsonaro supporters. Yet, Lula’s win is significant because he has the opportunity to challenge Bolsonarismo by bringing civility back into public discourse and more importantly, can positively aid marginalized groups, including Afro-Brazilians.
Even though Bolsonaro will soon complete his term, Bolsonarismo, the right wing and conservative ideology of Bolsonaro, will remain. In fact, the close presidential race demonstrates the strength of Bolsonarismo in the minds of Brazilian voters. In the first round, Lula received 48.43% compared to his vote share of 50.9% in the second round; an increase of 2.47%. In the first round, Bolsonaro received 43.20% of the vote and increased his vote share by 5.8% to 49.10%. In other words, Bolsonaro's increase in votes compared to his first round was more than double Lula’s increase. This increase is indicative of the unwavering support Bolsonaro continues to enjoy, despite his slow response to the Covid-19 pandemic and his homophobic, racist, and sexist beliefs. His supporters admire him as a strong leader willing to represent unpopular beliefs.
A Lula presidency means that Lula can reintroduce civility to the toxic political climate in which Bolsonaro thrived. Society has not undergone a dramatic shift simply because Lula was elected. Yet, a shift is possible. An example of a societal change is public opinion of quotas in universities. In 1995, only 48% of Brazilians agreed there should be quotas for Blacks and Browns. By 2006, this percentage had jumped to 65% (Queiroz and Santos 2006). Some of this difference is due to the way survey questions are asked. Questions that frame quotas in terms of winners and losers, depress support. In 2022, half of Brazilians agree with racial quotas in universities. While this percentage is lower than in 2006, it is still relatively high, especially when compared to the United States. According to the Pew Research Center, in 2019, 73% of Americans said colleges and universities should not consider race or ethnicity. The point is that under Lula’s and Dilma Rousseff’s presidencies, quotas were framed as a reparatory policy and a right, which helped to destigmatize the policy. Lula’s discourse of rights that marginalized people have earned, aided in changing public discourse. Rousseff’s federal implementation of quotas in 2012 aided in normalizing the policy as a right for students from public schools and for Afro-Brazilian students as there were sub-quotas for these students. As some scholars have noted, the implementation of the policy aided in shifting political opinion. On the other hand, Bolsonaro’s extreme rhetoric against marginalized communities has led to a change in norms where it is acceptable to express hatred of marginalized people in public discourse. A Lula government can allow a return to civility in politics, political norms, and in public discourse.
The second importance of the Lula win is to show, through action such as policies and appointments, his commitment to Black Brazilian rights. There was an insurmountable level of effort from Black Brazilian activists and politicians to mobilize voters to support Lula going into the second round. Some of his most dedicated supporters were Black women. Talíria Petrone proudly campaigned, visibly showing her pregnant belly. Anielle Franco was by Lula’s side when he visited Complexo do Alemão, a favela in Rio de Janeiro. Vilma Reis and Olivia Santana also continued supporting him. The largest Black movement umbrella organization, “The Black Coalition for Rights,” ran social media campaign slogans such as “We are with Lula because we, Black men and Black women are 56% of the Brazilian population and demand to live in a country free of racial discrimination and racism.” Another slogan was, “We are with Lula because we need consistent public policies to face the femicide that touches women throughout the country, especially Black women and Trans women.” Recently, Lula’s Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin announced 9 working groups including groups for Racial Equality, Women, and Human Rights as part of their transition team. Some of these groups included leading Black intellectuals and activists such as Silvio Almeida, Anielle Franco, Douglas Belchior, Nilma Gomes, and Preta Ferreira. Publicly announcing these working groups demonstrates these issues are important to the incoming government. In addition, including well-known Black leaders with progressive agendas also shows a commitment to those who supported him. As he has done in the past, Lula should appoint Black Brazilians as ministers. Appointing these leaders as ministers, which would normalize what Black intellectuals and leaders have been saying all along, namely, that Black people also belong in spaces of power. However, the ministries in which they are appointed should also be given the necessary financial resources to properly function.
Although it will be no easy task, Lula will also have to tackle issues of hunger and unemployment that have been devastating to marginalized people. None of this will be easy, but Lula is no stranger to overcoming what seems impossible.
Gladys Mitchell-Walthour is Dan T. Blue Endowed Chair of Political Science, North Carolina Central University, National Co-Coordinator of the U.S. Network for Democracy in Brazil National, and WBO Board Member
