Current Challenges of Brazilian Foreign Policy by Túlio Ferreira - 03/25/22

Gerson Moura, the late Brazilian professor of International Relations, once wrote that the difficulties of correctly evaluating the possibilities of Brazil's performance in the international system have produced both the pretension of greatness and misunderstandings of real opportunities. This is because foreign policy is the result of an interplay between the internal conditions of a given country and external constraints. In order to navigate the international system, states must assess their limits and capabilities. Bad diagnoses presage misadventures. Brazil under Bolsonaro is undergoing such “difficulties” since his government has created one of the most erratic moments in Brazilian foreign policy. Below are some reasons why that is so.

When Jair Messias Bolsonaro was elected in 2018, politicians, intellectuals, journalists, artists, among others, expressed concerns about Brazilian national and international affairs. Celso Amorim, one of the most experienced diplomats in Brazil, stated that Bolsonaro’s proposals on foreign policy were worrying since it's not a good idea to put all eggs in one basket. Brazil could become isolated. Actually, Bolsonaro’s campaign platform contained little mention of foreign policy. He offered only one page filled with generic ideas focusing principally on one specific theme: ideology, a concept used quite inaccurately. His core criticism was to condemn any act or thought that he labeled as Leftist.  

After his election, that tone continued. In his first speech as president-elect, Bolsonaro reserved some time to comment on the Brazilian Foreign Ministry (Itamaraty), emphasizing his intention to remove “ideology” from Brazil’s foreign policy. In line with what had been said in the campaign, Bolsonaro and his supporters continued to issue diatribes on Cuba, Palestine, Venezuela, China, and climate agreements. At the same time, ties were strengthened with the United States, more specifically, with the ideological thinking of then president Donald Trump. 

Thirty months later, Bolsonaro's foreign policy shows signs of disorientation while dismantling some historic principles. Five former foreign ministers were unanimous in condemning the bases of his foreign policy, declaring that it was losing touch with reality. In this short essay, there is not enough space to discuss all of the country’s major foreign policy concerns, since Brazil faces a wide and diverse range of multilateral and bilateral issues. In several of them, Brazil has been experiencing difficulties. The cooling off of relations with the United States after the Biden election, the difficulty with environmental themes, and the defense of a conservative agenda are some of the guiding principles that critics have argued need to be radically changed. Also important is the notable misalignment recently shown between the president and the ministry of foreign affairs in dealing with the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Ernesto Araújo, Bolsonaro’s first foreign minister (2019-2020), advocated for the need to refound the Brazilian nation. For Araújo, the West suffers from a “mysterious evil,” a loss of faith. In his opinion, Trump is the only statesman to understand and defend the “real” values ​​of the West. Thus, global governance is not possible given the difficulties of multilateralism. Pan-nationalism should be defended, and cosmopolitanism repelled. He also declared that he prefers to see the Brazilian foreign policy being condemned by other nations rather than allying itself with the “self-interested cynicism of globalists, the corrupt and semi-corrupt.” And he added that if the country's diplomacy “makes us an international pariah, then let us be that pariah.” All of that said, it seems that Brazil is walking in stride in that direction. The replacement of Araújo by a new and more discreet chancellor does not seem to have radically changed this route.

Those are just small examples of the principles used by the current government’s foreign policy decision makers that are restraining the country from an accurate reading of the international system that, according to John J. Mearsheimer, is experiencing a new multipolar moment. We no longer have a single superpower in command as was the case immediately after the dissolution of Cold War bipolarity. The rise of China and the relative loss of US power pose new challenges for countries such as Brazil that are not at the center of the international system and lack a surplus of power. Not taking these facts into consideration only exacerbates the country's isolation in the world. So, the idea of being part of the West is not a good compass in navigating the current world system.

Reversing the current course implies the recognition of mistakes and a shrewder reading of the internal and external conditions of the current conjuncture. Such will and capabilities do not seem to be present in the current government. Whoever rules Brazil in January 2023 will have huge challenges ahead.

Túlio Ferreira is Professor at Federal University of Paraíba, Member of the Brazilian Association of International Relations and WBO Board Advisor.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.