The Bolsonaro-Lula Transition in 2023
Carlos Melo is a political scientist and a professor at Insper: Higher Education in Business, Law and Engineering, located in São Paulo Brazil. This text was originally written for issue 48 of the WBO Newsletter (Washington Brazil Office), published on January 6, 2023.
Brazil’s political and social life is returning to normal. This is something that has been happening little by little with moments of greater or lesser tension. Since 2014 when Dilma Rousseff was re-elected for a second presidential term, the country seemed to have plunged into an abyss. The reception to the result of that election was aggressively challenged, opening the door for all kinds of political contestations about the fairness of the ballot boxes and the legitimacy of the democratic order. At that moment, a very bad climate settled over the country. There was a gradual reduction in dialogue, caused by disagreements between the main political actors. First, in 2016, there was the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, who had on recently been elected to a second term. By the time of the election of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 there was already a clear deterioration of the democratic orders.
Brazil’s political and social life is returning to normal. This is something that has been happening little by little with moments of greater or lesser tension. Since 2014 when Dilma Rousseff was re-elected for a second presidential term, the country seemed to have plunged into an abyss. The reception to the result of that election was aggressively challenged, opening the door for all kinds of political contestations about the fairness of the ballot boxes and the legitimacy of the democratic order. At that moment, a very bad climate settled over the country. There was a gradual reduction in dialogue, caused by disagreements between the main political actors. First, in 2016, there was the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, who had on recently been elected to a second term. By the time of the election of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 there was already a clear deterioration of the democratic orders.
After all the inglorious and depoliticized conflicts of those times, the Bolsonaro government will go down in history as a true mistake of dramatic proportions. To be sure, this did not only happen in Brazil. In several countries, politicians came to power whose main intentions have been to establish themselves as autocratic leaders. In many respects, these were times of setbacks: important institutions were hijacked and the system of checks and balances experienced shaky moments.
“Bolsonaro leaves power with a significant political support, but it is much smaller than the 49.1% of the votes he received at the polls. These votes show more the near majority strength of anti-Workers’ Party sentiments rather than the force of Bolsonarism itself”
It was also a time of scientific and institutional denial. It was a time when the Republic was at risk – even more than has been common in the history of Brazil, as the manipulation of political processes and public resources took place explicitly. Never has a Brazilian election suffered so much influence from political and economic power and from the expansion of abuses of all kinds: administrative, financial, religious, and even military.
Overcoming this structure that was set in place, including the radicalism, sectarianism and violence contained therein, was almost a miracle. This victory was only possible due to two factors in this order of importance. The first was anti-Bolsonarism, since Jair Bolsonaro's political, administrative and social conduct errors were so many and so profound that, at the same time that his popularity surged, it also produced its opposite, namely contestation and defeat. The second factor was the power of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's charisma. Another leader might not have represented as many symbolic elements as Lula possessed – even if he made mistakes at various points throughout the campaign.
Logically, it cannot be said that at this moment these threats have definitively been overcome. Bolsonaro leaves power with a significant political support, but it is much smaller than the 49.1% of the votes he received at the polls. These votes show more the near majority strength of anti-Workers’ Party sentiments rather than the force of Bolsonarism itself. Whether he will be fit and strong enough to return to power in the next election is something that will depend a lot on the success or failure of Lula’s government. However, it will depend even more on how much Jair Bolsonaro will be able to lead the opposition without counting on the abuse of the economic and political power that he had while president. Only time will tell.
The text was originally written for issue Nº 48 of the WBO Newsletter (Washington Brazil Office), published on January 6, 2023. Subscribe to the WBO weekly newsletter in English.
