US-Brazil Relations: Close Allies or Distant Neighbors
Carlos Gustavo Poggio, Associate Professor of Political Science at the Berea College, KY. This text was originally written for issue 50 of the WBO Newsletter (Washington Brazil Office), that will be published on January 20, 2023. Fill in the form at the bottom of the text to access and subscribe to the WBO weekly newsletter in English.
With each new administration taking office in Brazil or in the United States, speculations begin about what will be its effect on bilateral relationship. What does the future of US-Brazil relations hold with Lula da Silva and Joe Biden in office? How different will it be from the Bolsonaro-Trump rendezvous?
On the one hand, there are obvious opportunities, such as in the field of environment. Both Biden and Lula made environmental concerns a center topic of their campaigns, while both Bolsonaro and Trump famously did not care much about such niceties as clean air or polar ice caps. Biden specifically mentioned Brazil in one of the debates in 2020, which is something of a rarity in US presidential debates. While discussing deforestation, the then-candidate declared that he would be willing to create a 20-billion-dollar fund to compensate Brazil for preserving the Amazon Rainforest. Indeed, the Lula administration would do well to gauge how serious the US president was about it and ask for the invoice in the first year of his administration.
However, a broader overview of the history of US-Brazil relations should make evident that there is no reason to expect profound changes in bilateral interactions due to occasional changes in presidencies. Yes, there have been modifications in tone and style, and there have been sporadic skirmishes, such as the one between the Rousseff and Obama administrations surrounding espionage, as well as mutual declarations of love, such as the recent Bolsonaro-Trump bromance. But there have not been any real transformations, such as signing a free trade agreement or breaking diplomatic relations. In that sense, Brazil-US relations are very much unlike Mexico-US or Argentina-US relations, which historically have had far more ups and downs.
Since its independence, Brazil has always attempted to secure a good yet relatively distant relationship with the US. On the other hand, while Brazil joined the Allies in World War II, Argentina, for example, refused to break relations with the Axis powers in the and became known as the “bad neighbor” in US foreign policy circles. Brazil has never been a genuine priority from the perspective of US foreign policy. The “Latin America” policy of the United States has always been about Mexico first, then Central America and the Caribbean, with South America in general, and Brazil in particular, as afterthoughts.
“Occasionally, something may happen that will give material for analysts and political pundits to declare a “new era” (...) However, a broader overview of the history of US-Brazil relations should make evident that there is no reason to expect profound changes in bilateral interactions due to occasional changes in presidencies”
Occasionally, something may happen that will give material for analysts and political pundits to declare a “new era” in US-Brazil relations. Still, sooner rather than later, things get back to broader historical patterns. More recently, such was the case during the first two years of the Bolsonaro administration, which made the relationship with Donald Trump a cornerstone of its foreign policy strategy. As soon as Trump left the White House, Bolsonaro replaced his previous unconventional – and relatively unskilled – foreign minister with a more household and professional name who quickly scaled back some of the recklessness of his predecessor. With Trump in Mar-a-Lago rather than in the White House, Bolsonaro seemed to rapidly lose interest in foreign policy and let professionals run it.
In that sense, the Lula administration will be following the second and more conventional phase of Bolsonaro’s foreign policy. For example, when it comes to central issues such as the war in Ukraine, it is not at all clear how a Lula administration would be much different from Bolsonaro’s, whose support for Ukraine has been somewhat circumspect. Indeed, the war in Ukraine may become a friction point between the Lula and Biden administrations. Lula has forcefully criticized Zelensky, claiming that the Ukrainian and the Russian presidents are equally responsible for the war. Lula also criticized the sanctions against Russia and said that Biden “could have avoided” the war if he had taken “a plane to Moscow to talk.”
Contrary to Bolsonaro, Lula is known for enjoying actively participating in foreign matters. For example, while Bolsonaro skipped the COP-27 meeting in November, Lula traveled to Egypt and met several world leaders. With the war in Ukraine and its economic and political consequences far from being off the radar, Lula’s proclivity to actively participate in foreign policy may create problems with the Biden administration. But again, this may not have any deeper or long-term consequences. Biden may show some displeasure, Lula may enjoy being in the spotlight standing up to the United States as a way to please his leftist base, but Brazil and the United States will remain distant neighbors.
